The 2026 Fantasy Football Reset: Identifying the Risers and Fallers Before Your Draft
The smell of fresh-cut grass, the sound of pads clashing, and the relentless heat of late summer—training camp is officially upon us. For the casual NFL fan, this is the time to get excited about the upcoming season. For the fantasy football manager, however, this is a high-stakes investigation. Information is the most valuable currency in the fantasy world, and over the past few weeks, the market has begun to shift. ADP (Average Draft Position) is a fluid concept, reacting violently to news snippets, coaching quotes, and practice performance. If you are drafting today with the same knowledge you held two weeks ago, you are already behind.
In the pursuit of a fantasy championship, stagnation is the enemy. To help navigate the noise, we have consulted with industry experts to parse through the reports coming out of camps. The landscape is changing, and while some names are gaining massive momentum, others are sliding down the boards. Whether you are prepping for a high-stakes auction league or a casual home draft, knowing who is trending up and who is losing ground is the difference between a playoff run and a disappointing finish.
The Rise of the Breakout Candidates
The most exciting aspect of training camp is identifying the breakout stars before the general public catches on. This year, one name is dominating the conversation in New York: Malik Nabers. The Giants’ wide receiver has been the subject of intense scrutiny, and for good reason. As recently as 24 hours ago, Nabers was participating in team drills and walkthroughs, signaling significant progress in his recovery. The fact that he avoided the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) list is a massive win for his fantasy value.
If Nabers had been sidelined, his ADP would have cratered, likely pushing him down to the fifth or sixth round. Instead, he is looking like his old self, displaying the agility and route-running prowess that made him a draft darling in the first place. Currently, his ADP is hovering around the third round. However, the expert consensus is clear: if Nabers keeps practicing without setbacks, he is a potential first-round talent. If you are drafting late in the second round, taking a shot on Nabers could be the move that secures your league victory. He is a high-upside player who, when healthy, commands a target share that is the gold standard for fantasy wide receivers.
Moving to the backfield, Jacksonville presents an intriguing situation with the player identified in camp as “Bashel Tutin.” Every report coming out of the Jaguars’ camp has been glowing. He is showcasing elite speed—clocking in under a 4.3 in the 40-yard dash—and impressive strength. While the conversation around him has been dominated by his talent, fantasy managers must exercise caution. The emergence of Chris Rodriguez, who has been seeing carries inside the 10-yard line, adds a layer of risk. Can Tutin be a feature back who scores more than five touchdowns? That is the billion-dollar question. History shows us that running backs who fail to secure goal-line work often struggle to hit the 14 PPR points per game threshold. Tutin is a riser, but he appears to have hit a ceiling around the fifth or sixth round. He is a solid depth piece, but caution is advised if you are expecting RB1 numbers.
Finally, we have to talk about Jonathan Brooks of the Panthers. Brooks is arguably one of the most polarizing figures of this training camp. Coming off two ACL tears, the narrative surrounding him was initially one of extreme caution. Yet, he is defying expectations. He is not only practicing; he is putting on the muscle necessary to withstand the physical rigors of the NFL. His rise from the 12th round to the 9th round is a testament to the growing confidence in his health. If you are sitting in the eighth round, looking for a high-ceiling player to round out your bench, Brooks is your target. He has the potential to blow his competition out of the water, much like Rico Dowdle did in previous seasons. If Brooks stays healthy, he is not just a backup; he is a potential league winner.
The Fallers: Cautionary Tales for Draft Day
While it is tempting to chase the hype, it is equally important to know when to jump off a sinking ship. The “fallers” in fantasy football are often players whose perceived value does not match their reality on the field.
The Patriots’ running back room has been a source of headache for fantasy managers, and Trayvon Henderson is currently at the center of the storm. Despite having an ADP in the 50s—which translates to a fifth-round pick—Henderson is not generating the positive buzz that justifies such a high selection. Reports indicate that he is still playing behind Rhamondre Stevenson in practice and, more concerningly, is struggling with pass protection. In today’s NFL, a running back who cannot protect the quarterback is a liability who will be relegated to the bench. If the situation in New England does not change by late August, we expect Henderson’s value to plummet into the seventh or eighth round. At that point, he becomes a value play, but at his current price, he is a classic “trap” pick.
In Pittsburgh, the situation regarding Jaylen Warren is becoming increasingly “annoying,” to put it mildly. What many expected to be a clear split in the backfield now appears to be trending heavily in favor of Rico Dowdle. Reports suggest Dowdle is being treated as the lead back, a development that is not yet fully reflected in his ADP. Managers should anticipate a shift here: Dowdle should be the first Steelers running back off the board, not Warren. If you are drafting today, prioritize Dowdle and leave the headaches associated with the Warren split to your league mates.
Finally, the tight end position offers a notable faller in Harold Fannon Jr. While Fannon was a fantasy darling last year, the circumstances have changed. The primary issue for Fannon is not necessarily his talent, but the uncertainty surrounding the offense in Cleveland. With other receivers like Denzel Boston and Casey Conception making significant strides, the target distribution is becoming unpredictable. Fannon’s value was built on the fact that he was the only viable option to catch the football. That is no longer the case. When you are looking at the middle rounds, you want consistency. Fannon is a gamble that may not pay off. If you have the choice between a potential target hog like Denzel Boston and a declining tight end like Fannon, the smart money is on the wide receiver who is poised to break out.
Drafting with Agility
The overarching lesson from this training camp is simple: stay agile. The fantasy football season is a marathon, not a sprint, but the draft is where the race begins. The players discussed today—Nabers, Brooks, Henderson, Dowdle—are not just names on a spreadsheet. They are the components of your potential championship roster.
As you head into your drafts, remember the value of flexibility. Do not fall in love with your preseason rankings. Use the training camp reports, listen to the coaching staff, and watch for depth chart shifts. The goal is not to draft the perfect team on day one; the goal is to draft a team that can adapt. Whether you are reaching for a rising star like Brooks or fading a declining veteran like Henderson, your success depends on your ability to process information faster and more accurately than the rest of your league. Keep your ear to the ground, stay skeptical of the hype, and get ready to dominate your 2026 fantasy football season. Good luck, and may the best manager win.
